Our chances

A couple of weeks ago I was pontificating over who is most likely to occupy the promotion and relegation places come May 2011. In my mind, we weren't likely to be included and when pressed I think I went for a safe guess of tenth.

Things have moved on a bit from then with a couple of additional signings in the shape of Francis and Abbott, and with barely 48 hours remaining before the big kick-off, I'm wondering with almost everyone else whether or not we have enough to challenge again this year.

What I think is very clear is that we will start the season with a weaker squad than we finished the season. Certainly weaker in depth and also shorter on quality, although probably closer on quality than depth. Whilst we have shown circa 20 players the door, I would argue that only seven of those were significant contributors to last season and that we have largely replaced those on a like-for-like basis, although the big question is whether or not we will be a better side for it?

Last year, we were too short of fire-power from the off and whilst Deon over-performed until Christmas, that was unlikely to last and we ran out of steam in spite of the loan signings of Mooney and co. When I look at what we are likely to start with, I have to conclude that we look set for a repeat performance at best and probably a yard or two short in practice.

In headline terms, McCormack has replaced Bailey, Abbott for Burton, Francis for Richardson, Doherty for Sodje, probably Worner for Randolph before Saturday and possibly Benson for Mooney within a week or two depending upon his fitness (injured) and whether or not we are prepared to meet Dagenham's valuation.

The logic would tell you that McCormack will struggle to fully replace Nicky Bailey, especially his goal contribution, although I would argue that a consistent season from McCormack might make up for Bailey's inconsistent one where he was excellent first-half and very poor second. Abbott is a different kind of player from Burton, but the basis of his experience and likely goal contribution of a dozen or so, then I'll settle for him as a fair replacement. I don't know Francis but am prepared to accept he's a decent player as former player-of-the-year although that is likely to make him only an adequate cover for Richardson (himself a Leeds player-of-the-year). Doherty will fill in for Sam Sodje - what he lacks for in pace, he should make up for in his historic fitness and availability to play. Worner is likely to sign as we are desperate for Saturday and you can argue that Elliot might be able to play the entire season although it's a lot to ask from a non-league keeper if he is thrust into the fray. Perhaps we would loan another first-choice keeper if Rob gets injured.

So, at best we look likely to be short on last season and that was ultimately not enough. I thought we were fortunate to make the play-offs and that promotion wouldn't have been deserved, although I am prepared to be convinced that this division is so homogenous in terms of quality that anything just better than average is good enough to be in with a chance. On that basis there should be cause for optimism although Phil Parkinson will need to prove his man-management prowess as he did at the start if last year and hold the belief, ambition and individual performance levels that he failed to do after New Year.

Before I get too excited about our chances this year, I would like to see two more attacking players recruited. A striker and another right winger and players who are obviously better than Akpo Sodje and Scott Wagstaff, although I think that's beyond us financially as things stand.