Martin Samuels this morning warns in the Daily Mail that Charlton Athletic could be the next Bury FC. Samuels is a respected journalist but his article lacks any specifics or real news that suggests he is just speculating in the same way we have all been doing.
What is clear is that the 20th April banking payment cut-off has passed without any screaming so far and the EFL's deadline for initial responses into their investigation for misconduct is also approaching a week old with no obvious bad news. Marian Mihail also told us that he has been informed by the EFL that the ongoing investigation is likely to take weeks, which suggests no immediate sanction or punishment.
On the surface this all appears to offer some encouragement that Nimer may be showing some determination to stay the course. It also suggests, to me at least, that source of funds is not the issue for the EFL and that they have seen something to give hope that proof of funds may be forthcoming. His excuse thus far for not committing investment has been that Southall might try to steal 35% of it. This doesn't really wash if Southall's hands have been removed from the day-to-day operational controls and he is persona non-grata at the club. We should know for certain this week when it will become clear if the club has failed to meet its salary and other monthly commitments.
If Nimer knows he doesn't really have the money or can't satisfy the EFL, he would know that the game is up and his only chance to salvage anything from the ESI mess would be to sell the club. However, it must be clear to him by now that no-one in their right mind would buy the club from ESI given the prospect of picking up a debt-free bargain post Administration.
The EFL will also be under intense pressure not to have another Bury on their hands. If Charlton are at serious risk of going out-of-business, they may want to conclude an investigation so that they are in a position to offer up a fuller explanation of what went wrong with the ESI takeover and, more importantly from their perspective, what steps they are going to take to prevent a third club from getting into a similar position as and when Charlton do hit the buffers.
There appears to be some confidence that there are willing buyers (plural) and that Administration, even if it means relegation, would not deter purchase. Indeed, the cost would presumably fall commensurate with League One status and might enable a new owner a stronger prospect of making an immediate impact on the pitch.
The biggest risk that I can see is the wildcard in all this - Roland Duchatelet. Duchatelet might have been sitting contentedly ready to wash his hands of the footballing risk and to take his increased annual rental of £200,000 and presumably some interest on the club debt until the assets purchase was completed. Collapse of ESI and Administration would be a massive red flag for him though. Pursuing ESI through the courts wouldn't be quick, cheap or sure and he would almost certainly face the loss of the Charlton debt that has been accrued under his ownership. He would still have the Valley and Sparrows Lane assets but presumably he would want a far tighter commercial deal from any new owner before agreeing to allow continued use of his facilities, be that an outright purchase or another option deal based on settlement over a term. It seems safe to assume Duchatelet would have little option but to recognise new ownership given he would be very unlikely to get any support from the planning authorities to do anything with the land in the short-term, particularly if Charlton Athletic remain a going concern.
The big fear in all this is that Duchatelet continues to be intransigent in terms of the value he ascribes to the Valley. If he doesn't get real on values - and £50m or any figure near this isn't realistic - there will be a significant timing risk that the club would fold before any deal could be done to save us from the Administrator. We might then be in "AFC Charlton AFC" territory but that could see us starting the club from scratch way down the leagues from which we might never return. Assuming Duchatelet has to see sense is dangerous as we all know. He may well see the club folding as his best option given any prolonged absence from the Valley would strengthen his case for re-development, something he would almost certainly win on appeal downstream.
What is clear is that the 20th April banking payment cut-off has passed without any screaming so far and the EFL's deadline for initial responses into their investigation for misconduct is also approaching a week old with no obvious bad news. Marian Mihail also told us that he has been informed by the EFL that the ongoing investigation is likely to take weeks, which suggests no immediate sanction or punishment.
On the surface this all appears to offer some encouragement that Nimer may be showing some determination to stay the course. It also suggests, to me at least, that source of funds is not the issue for the EFL and that they have seen something to give hope that proof of funds may be forthcoming. His excuse thus far for not committing investment has been that Southall might try to steal 35% of it. This doesn't really wash if Southall's hands have been removed from the day-to-day operational controls and he is persona non-grata at the club. We should know for certain this week when it will become clear if the club has failed to meet its salary and other monthly commitments.
If Nimer knows he doesn't really have the money or can't satisfy the EFL, he would know that the game is up and his only chance to salvage anything from the ESI mess would be to sell the club. However, it must be clear to him by now that no-one in their right mind would buy the club from ESI given the prospect of picking up a debt-free bargain post Administration.
The EFL will also be under intense pressure not to have another Bury on their hands. If Charlton are at serious risk of going out-of-business, they may want to conclude an investigation so that they are in a position to offer up a fuller explanation of what went wrong with the ESI takeover and, more importantly from their perspective, what steps they are going to take to prevent a third club from getting into a similar position as and when Charlton do hit the buffers.
There appears to be some confidence that there are willing buyers (plural) and that Administration, even if it means relegation, would not deter purchase. Indeed, the cost would presumably fall commensurate with League One status and might enable a new owner a stronger prospect of making an immediate impact on the pitch.
The biggest risk that I can see is the wildcard in all this - Roland Duchatelet. Duchatelet might have been sitting contentedly ready to wash his hands of the footballing risk and to take his increased annual rental of £200,000 and presumably some interest on the club debt until the assets purchase was completed. Collapse of ESI and Administration would be a massive red flag for him though. Pursuing ESI through the courts wouldn't be quick, cheap or sure and he would almost certainly face the loss of the Charlton debt that has been accrued under his ownership. He would still have the Valley and Sparrows Lane assets but presumably he would want a far tighter commercial deal from any new owner before agreeing to allow continued use of his facilities, be that an outright purchase or another option deal based on settlement over a term. It seems safe to assume Duchatelet would have little option but to recognise new ownership given he would be very unlikely to get any support from the planning authorities to do anything with the land in the short-term, particularly if Charlton Athletic remain a going concern.
The big fear in all this is that Duchatelet continues to be intransigent in terms of the value he ascribes to the Valley. If he doesn't get real on values - and £50m or any figure near this isn't realistic - there will be a significant timing risk that the club would fold before any deal could be done to save us from the Administrator. We might then be in "AFC Charlton AFC" territory but that could see us starting the club from scratch way down the leagues from which we might never return. Assuming Duchatelet has to see sense is dangerous as we all know. He may well see the club folding as his best option given any prolonged absence from the Valley would strengthen his case for re-development, something he would almost certainly win on appeal downstream.
These basta''s messing with our football club, makes me sick
ReplyDeleteA very well written article. So sad that the club that I have supported since 1946 are in such a mess.
ReplyDeleteno doubt he has the cash just doesn't want to put it in while numbnuts is still about
ReplyDelete