The EFL yesterday lost patience with Taynoon Nimer and his ESI ownership of Charlton Athletic. They have announced an intention to investigate the purchase of the club from Roland Duchatelet in a move that threatens the future of the club.
Nimer has clearly failed to convince the EFL of his funds and source of those funds in order to remove the January transfer embargo placed on the club despite promises to do so. The driver for the latest action would appear to be the pending settlement of April's wage bill and running costs. Southall's attempt at settling the natives by telling us that there were funds to keep the club afloat until Christmas were laughable wishful thinking but suspension of league fixtures has cut all revenue streams and accelerated the approach of the iceberg.
Taynoon could still settle the April bills but you have to wonder if he actually has the money to do this and, equally as likely, whether he is willing to part with any money when he has failed to satisfy the EFL. Without their support his ownership would be short-lived as they can continue to impose embargoes and sanctions against the club and could ultimately kick us out of the league. The bottom-line, of course, is that if Nimer can't prove source of funds, the money he may have access to is likely to be dirty.
So, where does that leave us? The most obvious answer is facing Administration and a process that moves much quicker than the typical takeover and which would therefore imperil the future of the club. With CAFC facing Administration, Nimer would have a very short window to sell the club on to someone else but who would pay him for a club he looks to have acquired control of for nothing and which now looks several million light of where it was when he placed the grasping Matt Southall in control of the bank account and which still faces a realistic playing relegation from the Championship? Nimer has no emotional connection with Charlton and I can't see him doing anything for the good of the future of the club over his own personal desire to make a buck from the whole sorry mess. So, he could well drag his feet and time is not something we can afford with Administration looming.
Common wisdom suggests that the most likely 'saviour' in the short-term would be Roland Duchatelet. Administration would see the club's debts wiped clean and that would mean Duchatelet finally having to settle the accumulated debt of his disastrous six years of remote ownership - maybe as much as £65m. He would, of course, then be free in time to sell on the Valley and Sparrows Lane but that would likely take a lot of time and planning (cost). It's far from certain he would get the permission he would need to maximise his development potential. The business case for redevelopment at the Valley is known to be contentious for lots of reasons, not least of all access to the site and Sparrows Lane is still very much a green space that is part of a well protected area of sporting fields and recreational areas in south-east London. The return on investment case for the Valley and Sparrows Lane is likely to be far less attractive than many believe and may also involve risk and time that Roland Duchatelet has little interest in. In all likelihood he would still leave the Valley with a hefty loss.
In summary then, it looks like the best we can hope for may be that Roland steps in to retake control of the club and that he then does what he has patently failed to do since deciding to sell the club - to be realistic about what the club is actually worth and pull his finger out to find a serious buyer. However, that would mean him acknowledging a big financial hit which he has thus far refused to accept. If that happens, the whole ESI shambles may have served a bizarre purpose. In the meantime, the club faces a lot of time-bound challenges and Administration would likely result in the club being docked points and relegated to League One even if there is a white knight finally waiting to rescue the club.
A wise and learned friend suggested to me over the weekend that we were too big a club to fail. Bury could be allowed to go out of business but not a club with our history and scale. I hope he is right but logic tells you a bigger club will almost inevitably go to the wall at some point and given the current global financial crisis and massive uncertainty about the future, that could well be sooner rather than later.
Nimer has clearly failed to convince the EFL of his funds and source of those funds in order to remove the January transfer embargo placed on the club despite promises to do so. The driver for the latest action would appear to be the pending settlement of April's wage bill and running costs. Southall's attempt at settling the natives by telling us that there were funds to keep the club afloat until Christmas were laughable wishful thinking but suspension of league fixtures has cut all revenue streams and accelerated the approach of the iceberg.
Taynoon could still settle the April bills but you have to wonder if he actually has the money to do this and, equally as likely, whether he is willing to part with any money when he has failed to satisfy the EFL. Without their support his ownership would be short-lived as they can continue to impose embargoes and sanctions against the club and could ultimately kick us out of the league. The bottom-line, of course, is that if Nimer can't prove source of funds, the money he may have access to is likely to be dirty.
So, where does that leave us? The most obvious answer is facing Administration and a process that moves much quicker than the typical takeover and which would therefore imperil the future of the club. With CAFC facing Administration, Nimer would have a very short window to sell the club on to someone else but who would pay him for a club he looks to have acquired control of for nothing and which now looks several million light of where it was when he placed the grasping Matt Southall in control of the bank account and which still faces a realistic playing relegation from the Championship? Nimer has no emotional connection with Charlton and I can't see him doing anything for the good of the future of the club over his own personal desire to make a buck from the whole sorry mess. So, he could well drag his feet and time is not something we can afford with Administration looming.
Common wisdom suggests that the most likely 'saviour' in the short-term would be Roland Duchatelet. Administration would see the club's debts wiped clean and that would mean Duchatelet finally having to settle the accumulated debt of his disastrous six years of remote ownership - maybe as much as £65m. He would, of course, then be free in time to sell on the Valley and Sparrows Lane but that would likely take a lot of time and planning (cost). It's far from certain he would get the permission he would need to maximise his development potential. The business case for redevelopment at the Valley is known to be contentious for lots of reasons, not least of all access to the site and Sparrows Lane is still very much a green space that is part of a well protected area of sporting fields and recreational areas in south-east London. The return on investment case for the Valley and Sparrows Lane is likely to be far less attractive than many believe and may also involve risk and time that Roland Duchatelet has little interest in. In all likelihood he would still leave the Valley with a hefty loss.
In summary then, it looks like the best we can hope for may be that Roland steps in to retake control of the club and that he then does what he has patently failed to do since deciding to sell the club - to be realistic about what the club is actually worth and pull his finger out to find a serious buyer. However, that would mean him acknowledging a big financial hit which he has thus far refused to accept. If that happens, the whole ESI shambles may have served a bizarre purpose. In the meantime, the club faces a lot of time-bound challenges and Administration would likely result in the club being docked points and relegated to League One even if there is a white knight finally waiting to rescue the club.
A wise and learned friend suggested to me over the weekend that we were too big a club to fail. Bury could be allowed to go out of business but not a club with our history and scale. I hope he is right but logic tells you a bigger club will almost inevitably go to the wall at some point and given the current global financial crisis and massive uncertainty about the future, that could well be sooner rather than later.
There always has to be a first
ReplyDeleteYour friend's not actually that wise is he?
ReplyDeleteThere's no such thing as too big to fail.
The business has been run badly for a decade or more, the chickens and the cows have come home. There are bills to pay for which there is no money. Regardless of who's to blame, those bills ain't getting paid without an about turn by somebody. Ergo the business fails, size has nothing to do with it. The current incumbent lacks the will and the wherewithall, roly lacks the wit, EFL lacks anything of merit or quality. Smthn has to change and change within days. Don't hold your breath. All that will be left is recrimination and a pathetic old Belgian with a couple of dusty white elephants.
I cant believe it.
ReplyDeleteAfter 55 years it really looks as if my beloved CAFC could go to the wall or at the very least be in a position if relegated this year anyway, that we start the next 'season' minus a hatful of points and maybe even in League 2.
After months of dragging things out the EFL alone are responsible for allowing someone to take on the club when they clearly have not proven they have the funds to do so- what were the EFL doing all that time?
I hope that we survive, but this looks far worst than the 1980's!
Don't be so negative I know he has the funds ,but wants southall out of the picture.
ReplyDelete