If it looks like a duck....

Hugely frustrating following the fortunes of Charlton Athletic on social media at the moment. I know not everyone has the time or, frankly the interest, to be across everything but it's so depressing to see so many fans who appear to have no common sense or simply can't see when they are being misled.

The Oxford Gang.

Charlie Methven started appearing in the Directors Box at Charlton several months ago. He is an Oxford United season ticket holder and has held several posts at the club, so you wondered why? Sandgaard then appointed Scott, Rodwell, Warrick and Holden from nowhere having told the Fans Forum only days before that he had been searching for a CEO for two years with two head-hunting firms but couldn't find anyone!

Methven admitted he had been talking to Sandgaard but was not involved on any takeover or Sandgaard's appointments. However, Scott played for Oxford for three years and knew Methven from then. Rodwell had worked for Methven at Sunderland. We then found out that Methven and Warrick had just registerred a business called 'SE7 Partners.' So it looked very much like Methven was being economical with the truth and was indeed involved in a potential takeover.

We then had a scoop concerning a sales prospectus in the US for the club and an associated email trail from an investment house that said they were raising £11.3m to acquire the club and provide a modest operating budget (I was one of several fans who saw this). It said they had an experienced management team in place and it named Scott, Rodwell, Warrick, Simon Lenagan and, surprise, surprise, Charlie Boy himself as CEO. So it now looked and sounded like Methwen was involved in a potential takeover.

Next up, Simon Lenegan started turning up in the Directors box with the others. Lenegan is a fellow Oxford United fan. His father once owned the club and was Chairman of the EFL. So it now looked, sounded and smelt like a potential takeover.

The US Investment House

The email trail explaining their strategy made it very clear that this was "a fast burn." A short-term plan to get in, slash costs and sell on at a profit. The operating budget of £4m was only going to last 8 months at the current run rate, so it couldn't be long term. There was no money to invest in the club or the playing squad so the idea that they would win promotion next season before selling us on was laughable but they never claimed that as part of the plan. The detail, as I have explained previously, was all negative cost cutting and club shrinking. An asset-stripper like Methven, with his track record at Sunderland, was as perfect for the task. I will agree with anyone that this plan doesn't add value so why would anyone pay a premium, but that is their plan. If they get the club and it doesn't play out, you can see us entering Administration at some point next year.

The Takeover

We then had a Sandgaard-backed announcement that he had given exclusivity to a US-based takeover group. There was no deadline but fair to assume it was throughout January. Scott, Rodwell and Warrick had all come in on short-term contracts. Scott confirmed his until 31st January and told us he was appointed to oversee the January transfer window and confirmed there was money to spend and that he "wouldn't have accepted the job if there was no money." I believe him, after all he managed to spend over £150m this Summer at Forest, although their title challenge has faded.

Our transfer window wasn't actually anywhere near as bad as some feared (me included). We didn't sell Leaburn or Kanu and we moved out some players who had had their chance and failed. However, the simple facts were also that we brought in c £500k in fees for Stockley and Kirk, spent nothing ourselves, brought in short term loanees and cut our wage bill by shrinking our squad. We were misled by Scott and he also passed it off as a Holden-led window because he only wanted a 16 man matchday squad. Holden has gone along with this and with another win on Saturday has everyone purring. However, we are two injuries away from another positional crisis. Amazingly, some fans are still talking about a several million pound rebuild in the Summer. Others are saying they are glad new owners aren't buying the Valley or Sparrows Lane because spending on a promotion challenging side is more important! 

On Sunday, someone close to the takeover told a 'well known Charlton supporting businessman' that the takeover was well advanced with three (3) US billionaires involved and £53m ready to buy the assets as well as the club but that the nasty Thomas Sangaard was now playing hardball for an increased two per cent stake which was unacceptable to the three (3) billionaires and that the deal would be off within two days unless he relented. If you are going to tell a lie, it might as well be a big one, but honestly, who could believe this? The news was broken with tittle-tattle about Aneke's health and the searing injustice that Martin Sandgaard's office at Sparrows Lane was bigger than Dean Holden's. Laughable. Methven even commented on LinkedIn that he didn't know about three billionaires "but wasn't inclined to deny it." This from the man who told us he wasn't involved but is the most obvious suspect to have fed the gossip onto social media. No credible journo would have touched it and Methven would have to have exposed himself if he had gone down that route. 

Earlier this week the reputable The Athletic is reported that a US group are about to amnounce a £10m takeover and that Charlie Methven will be announced as the Chief Exec. So it now looks like a takeover, sounds like one and is about walk like one. 

What's next?

Sorry to tell you, but without big money, this group will be unable to do anything more than what they have outlined in their plan to would-be investors. Once they have control we will see their 'fast burn' and there will be no room for wishful thinking, wait and see, Summer rebuilds or any dreams of a promotion challenge. Dean Holden is doing a great job but he cannot succeed under a strategy that only focuses on costs and profits.

I also doubt they will be able to find anyone willing to pay them a big profit for selling players, slashing services and potential revenue streams as part of a short-term plan. Then we will be in real trouble because the money will run out.

Our first chance to stop these people or thwart their plans will be to withold season ticket revenues, at least until we see their 'Summer rebuild.' Like ESI before them, they will pocket this if we give it to them early.

Sunderland fans, God bless them, are shouting loud warnings, in the same way we were desperate to alert Rochdale fans about Matt Southall. Yet, there are still Charlton fans out there who think they are just bitter or that Methven and new owners deserve a chance, even when we have seen the blueprint. God help us.

If you are truly undecided or want help to make you mind up, may I recommend Netflix's Sunderland Til I Die. Charlie Methven is there in full technicolor. He knows he is being filmed throughout and still manages to come across as a clueless, entitled, public-school idiot who doesn't listen to anyone and makes a howler of everything. What's really great about it, is that we manage to piss on his chips in the last episode at Wembley. If this takeover plays out as it promises, as supporters we will need to do it again.