D-Day approaches..

We are approaching decision time at CAFC. The takeover group given a period of exclusivity last month are approaching their D-Day. Rumour has it they have put their case before the EFL and are awaiting response on their suitability as new owners and Directors of Charlton Athletic Football Club. That period of exclusivity will be finite and logic tells you it's 31st January or thereabouts. 

It's pretty obvious that Methven and Co have been running things since Sandgaard stepped away before Christmas. It's them who have been representing the club in the Director's Boxes at every match and why manager Dean Holden was so reluctant to reveal who had recruited him when talking to fans at the Bromley Supporters Branch meeting. On that basis they have been making the January transfer window decisions and, understandably I guess, these have been relatively limited as per Mystic Meg's New Year Predictions.

News that Conor McGrandles has been loaned to relegation-threatened Cambridge United yesterday was entirely predictable. His move balances the three short-term loans that Cowboy Co have authorised so far this window. All done within existing headcount and wage bill. For measure, I will add that it looks like good business - three key positions addressed and three lesser players moved on, albeit largely short-term and, for now at least, temporary. When has Sandgaard managed that in a window? Never. 

So, where are we with the takeover? Well the short answer is no-one knows for sure. However, it's not been announced thus far. The 'fit and proper persons test' in relation to the proposed new Directors should be a formality. Methven, Scott and Rodwell have honourable track records in the game and Lenegan's old man used to be the Chairman of the EFL. The $64m question will be, can they provide proof of funds and satisfy the EFL that they have a workable plan to run the club for at least an initial period of 12 months or more without risking financial failure and yet more embarrassment for the EFL? This looks like their biggest hurdle given the plan to raise only £11m to acquire the club and only £4m of that sum as operating budget (Mystic Meg has seen the paperwork, so this has a basis more in fact than prediction).

As we all know, £4m runs out in c 8 months at a burn rate of £500,000 a month. As predicted previously, their fire-sale plan may reduce the monthly losses by perhaps half during the close season, but that still leaves them short. They won't be telling the EFL that their backers plan to flip the club before they run out of cash, so they must have a Plan B. The most obvious explanation would be that they have a second or ongoing fund-raising investment round planned or that they anticipate incoming funds from player sales. Now is the time for player sales and I suspect a deadline-day deal would suit them perfectly. It would enable them to spin it as a deal they couldn't stop and coming so late in the window would also offer an excuse for a failure to reinvest some of the cash in a replacement. 

The only fly in the ointment here, of course, is Thomas Sandgaard, who would also need to be onside financially, given he is still the official owner. This could, of course, have already been factored in to his £7m selling price. That would make sense and it might also explain what Andy Scott's transfer-window contract was all about. A transfer deadline day bonanza might also help convince the EFL that this takeover passes muster. If not, then the takeover looks like failing. Methven, Scott, Rodwell and Warrick all leave as their contracts expire and Sandgaard is left holding the baby again. At least he is left with an improvement as manager and possibly a slightly stronger squad, albeit that the new boys will all be free to leave come May, but that is also not bad news for Sandgaard as he continues his quest to cut his losses and get out of the club. 

Hold on as it could get bumpy.