The 2-1 win at the Stadium of Light on Saturday was the minimum that Nigel Adkins' side needed to maintain momentum and a hitherto unlikely looking play-off push.
The early opening goal settled the nerves and gave us something to defend. The return of Ryan Inniss has settled the back four and his determination to make that early header on Saturday was enough for the covering defender on the line to slice it upwards into the roof of his own net. After that we were able to stand-up to Sunderland's attacking ambitions and whilst we rode our luck at times, Ben Amos was in fine form to make the saves when they were really called for. The second-half goal from Alex Gilbey put us in full control of the result and we might even have nicked a third before the Makems inevitably reduced the arrears with ten nerve-racking minutes of full-time remaining.
The win kept us chasing the pack and results around us have been kind. Last night's scorelines will have given everyone a further boost; Sunderland lost in fine Charlton-style to lowly Wigan and Ipswich were walloped at Wimbledon. Portsmouth were held at Crewe and only Lincoln and Oxford United improved their positions with 4-0 and 4-1 home wins respectively.
It is now looking like a game of musical chairs with Lincoln, Blackpool, Portsmouth, Oxford, Charlton and Ipswich slugging it out for the last three play-off places. Perversely we now find ourselves with games in hand over Oxford, Portsmouth and now and still have Ipswich and Lincoln to play at the Valley.
Of our seven remaining matches, five are at the Valley and that is where we need a serious return to form. The Adkins' bounce may be enough, if it continues and maybe we should be emboldened by the return of Inniss.
If we can see off the Tractor Boys in the early kick-off on Saturday, we should effectively dismiss them from the race. Oxford have won five and lost five of their last ten but have scored ten goals in their last two games and may be finishing with a bang. Our two games in hand should be enough to see them off if we can maintain our current run but Oxford have a relatively easy run-in against Gillingham, Wimbledon, Plymouth, Shrewsbury and Burton.
After four successive wins, Pompey have spluttered in the last two with a defat and a draw. They are at MK Dons on Saturday but then have only to face Swindon, Bristol Rovers, Accrington (twice) and Wimbledon. Blackpool are unbeaten in 15 games but have drawn seven of those. They have goals in the side but still have to face Sunderland twice on their run-in.
Lincoln are in the worst form of any of the sides involved in the scramble. Their win last night was only their second in 11. Five of their remaining matches are away from home and they face Hull, Peterborough and ourselves but they do have a points advantage our the rest of us as things stand.
By my reckoning, Blackpool, Pompey and Lincoln will make it. That leaves us, Oxford and Ipswich. Oxford may be running out of runway and we can put a huge spoke in Ipswich's wheels if we can beat them on Saturday. So I can see us finishing seventh but it's going to be very close - Nigel Adkins might just get us into sixth. It would feel like a bit of justice if we can scrape in at the death, having been relegated last years in similar fashion.
If we make the play-offs I don't think any of the other sides will fancy us over two legs and there is one who might even concede rather than play us at Wembley again. Imagine winning six promotions in living memory against only two sides at two venues? It's the sort of stat that our history is built on.
Has someone forgotten Sunderland? They probably will finish third, leaving only 3 places between the rest.
ReplyDeleteAnon - yes, you are right. I didn't word that very well having spent too long looking at the permutations. I think it will be very close for us between seventh and sixth. The Adkins factor could make the difference.
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