Too much to do

In terms of the chances of automatic promotion, we expected things to look clearer this morning. The fact that Norwich are up doesn't really help too much as with the rest of us failing to get a win between us, it was more a case of counting another game down and limiting the opportunities for any significant change, although with only a three point gap between the contenders, anything is possible. Goal difference could yet be the cruel decider.

What has become clearer in the last few weeks is that some of the fixtures yet to be played look harder than they did, especially for Millwall and Swindon, which offers Charlton fans real hope.


Leeds     - MK Dons (h),  Charlton (a), Bristol Rovers (h)
Millwall   - Leyton Orient (h), Tranmere (a), Swindon (h)
Swindon - Wycombe (a), Brentford (h), Millwall (a)
Charlton - Exeter City (a), Leeds (h), Oldham (a)


Leeds lost badly at Gillingham on Saturday. The 3-2 scoreline made it look respectable but they were 3-0 down and you have to believe their bottle has gone. Unfortunately, MK Dons is looking like the easiest fixture in the division right now and I can't see Leeds failing to beat them at Elland Road next week. That might hand them a Norwich-sized incentive to win at the Valley, possibly for promotion depending on other results. Leeds then finish with another side at home who look very beatable - Bristol Rovers. I can't see them winning at the Valley but I can see them finishing on 86 points.
Millwall's run-in looked the easiest of all but Orient have just mustered two successive wins and know they still need another to be sure of survival, although they will be concentrating on Wycombe at home which follows the Millwall game. Who knows, maybe London pride could spark a surprise like it did when they visited the Valley. My bet is Millwall will close this one out. They then face Tranmere away, which they might find their hardest battle yet. Tranmere are hanging on and it's their home form which could yet save them. I will take Tranmere to win this which would mean the Lions are likely to finish on 85 which won't be enough.
Swindon face a rejuvenated Wycombe side who won 3-2 at MK Dons on Saturday and who can sniff an unlikely survival but know that it depends on winning their home games. I think Swindon will come short here, maybe forcing a draw but with Millwall in the last match, they are likely to finish on 82 points if they can see off the Bees at the County ground.
Assuming we beat Leeds in our final home game, which we are more than capable of if we can repeat the level of Saturday's performance, all will depend on our away form. Oldham look like a weak link, safe in mid-table but with an unimpressive home record. Already encouraging their season ticket holders to move seats to maximise potential gate receipts when we visit, they look like they might be too obliging. That really leaves Saturday's match at Exeter, where we face a side with an impressive home record and who are just two points clear of Tranmere who have a game in hand. Beaten only four times at home, I fear this may be where our automatic hopes will flounder. 
Never give up, but our performances between now and the end of the season will be as important as the results if it's to be the play-offs which looks odds-on.