That's it - no more gambling for me this season. My new on-line account shows a depressing series of debits and no credits this year. Who would have forecast Boro winning at Pompey or QPR at Watford?
The Championship continues to be largely unpredictable and is the tightest of the four divisions with only 25 points separating top from bottom (I got four correct results and one correct score yesterday). Watford's home form is becoming a bit of a Jonah for them and we have to hope it continues until after we visit them. West Brom are beginning to look like they will skate away with the top spot and their goal difference looks unassailable and effectively gives them another point. They have three away games in the next four and we have to hope that they will suffer a couple of defeats; Ipswich on New Years day will be a toughie and they also have to go to Hull and Preston.
Bristol City and Stoke are now occupying 3rd and 4th places and are 4 and 2 points respectively ahead of us. Bristol City have had their wobble and are putting a run of results together. Stoke too look a form side and we need to catch the pair of them because Watford look like they could drop out of second in the coming weeks. Our next two home games could prove pivotal in terms of ambitions for the rest of the season. We must be looking for 6 points from bottom-placed Colchester and 17th placed Blackpool. If we can do this we should make ground on the teams above us and we may then get the opportunity to leapfrog Watford and Stoke when we play them on 19th and 29th January.
In addition to facing us in January, Stoke must also go to Ipswich and will do well to survive both of those unscathed. Bristol City, by comparison, look to have an easier month. They have Coventry and and Colchester at home, followed by Palace away and then Blackpool at home.
It's not worth worrying about the sides below us because if we can't stay in touch with those above us we will are going to fade anyway. However, Palace are on a good run and proving hard to beat, although I thought they rode their luck at Bramall Lane on Saturday. Plymouth are still in touch and will be close to a play-off spot come May. Close behind them are Ipswich and Wolves. I don't think Wolves have enough quality to get promoted but Ipswich have, if they can overcome their appalling away form.
The January transfer window offers the prospect of changing the balance but I think it will take some biggish money (£5m+) for any of the top 10 to make any significant changes to their fortunes. West Brom will probably feel like they are doing well enough. I'm not sure Watford or Bristol City have the funds. Stoke are not flush either and they face the added difficulty of attracting anyone to live near Potteries. Unless Richard Murray is playing a good game of transfer poker, we don't look like we'll be spending the requisite sums. Plymouth don't have it, which leaves Palace, Ipswich and Wolves. I suspect Neil Warnock will have agreed his transfer kitty when he took the job on and Jordan is usually reasonably supportive of new managers. Having said that, Warnock has been talking down his requirements in recent weeks. Ipswich have new funding and could get in a couple of quality players. Wolves will have something to spend, but not enough to make a major difference. Outside of these, Coventry should have some money to spend but they have ground to make up.
Best wishes for 2008 - let's hope that our injury situation improves dramatically this month because that will be like signing several new players!
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