Can Anyone Stop the Kiwis?

The Rugby World Cup kicks off this evening with what could be the best match from the opening four weeks as hosts France entertain Argentina. The French should be too strong at home but the Pumas will be up for it and could seize on any sign of choking if the pressure gets too much for France. The result tonight will really matter because both teams are locked in the group of death with Ireland and one of them is going to miss the boat.

The next four weeks will see plenty of rugby to entertain us as the football season continues to get underway. There is unlikely to be many shocks during the four weeks as the seeded teams do their stuff against the developing nations; France and either Ireland or Argentina should qualify from the group of death; England and South Africa will progress to the Quarter-Finals and Australia and New Zealand are bankers. The question-marks remain over Wales and Scotland. The Welsh have been horribly unpredictable over the last two years and generally poor. They will need to compete against the Fijians for the full 80 minutes if they are to get through. Scotland are improving but face a tricky game against Italy, a side who have recorded good 6 Nations wins against them in recent years. That one should be a bit tasty as both will be relying heavily on their maurauding packs to force the game.

Assuming things go relatively to plan, the Quarter-Finals on 6 and 7 October will pit England and South Africa against Australia and Wales/Fifi on one side of the draw and France and Ireland/Argentina against New Zealand and Scotland/Italy.

For the Semis it's hard to look beyond Australia, New Zealand, South Africa and France or Ireland/Argentina (depending on who avoids the Kiwis in the Quarters). At that stage it will be harder to call, but the Kiwis are favourites, especially as they will be thirsting for revenge over their southern hemisphere rivals for recent reversals.

My tip for a potential big-game upset is from Ireland and/or Scotland. Ireland have a mature team who are nearing the end of the line (sounds familiar?) and have the capacity to beat the best if they fire on all cylinders. They have expected greater success in recent years than they have achieved and this could be their big shout. Scotland by comparison don't have the same quality across their team but they have a game-winning pack, no pressure and Frank Haddon behind them.

In amongst the rugby this weekend, I am going to watch Scotland at Hampden against Lithuania in a game the Scots will expect to win but which I suspect could be a banana skin for them. They have been pretty good so far during their Euro campaign in terms of winning to form as well as getting a couple of unexpected scalps. I hope I am wrong because I have tickets for the Parc de Prince next Wednesday and they need the 3 points if there's going to be any real competitiveness in that game. I expect England to see of the Israeli's tomorrow but the Russians could be the party-poopers.

Eight days to Colchester!