After last night's disappointing defeat at Brentford having lead for 75 minutes, I had to study the table and remaining fixtures this afternoon for any crumbs of comfort.
The good news, I am pleased to share, is that with only four or five games remaining, I can't see Wigan, Luton or Barnsley finishing above 47 or 48 points. That would mean we only realistically need one more win and with Reading and Wigan both to come at the Valley, we should be confident of securing our Championship place. Birmingham away is a free hit for us although I can't see us stopping the Leeds parade at Elland Road on the last day. Reading is potentially the easiest fixture we have left, so it would be good to get those points on Saturday.
Wigan are effectively on 38 points, 12 adrift of us and with only five games left it's surely too much for them. They have to play Barnsley (A), Hull (H) and come to the Valley and they will do well to pick up four points from those given the current disarray at their club. They may also need to get something from promotion-chasing Fulham on the last day.
Luton only have four games left and have to travel to Huddersfield and Hull. QPR and Blackburn may have little to play for but both should give the Hatters a good game at Kenilworth Road. Can't see Luton having enough - that 5-0 spanking by Reading will have damaged fragile confidence.
Barnsley are also struggling and they too only have four games left. Wigan and Forest at home offer them some hope but their two aways are at Leeds and Brentford on the last day. Bye-bye Barnsley.
We can pretty much forget the rest because the existing 3-5 point advantage they have over Wigan, Barnsley and Luton looks unassailable.
So, secure those three points and we can focus again on the future of the club. Any prospective buyer awaiting confirmation of our league status shouldn't have much longer to wait. Staying up could revive Huw Jenkins' interest and it may clarify the price for Barclay and Varney.
Meanwhile, Paul Elliott is continuing to keep a straight face and the pretence that he happened to be convinced over a chat with his friend and neighbour Chris Farnell that Charlton were somehow a good long-term investment. Given our situation and the current uncertainties of future revenues, that is impossible to believe. The fact that Elliott is refusing to commit any further to fans in terms of who's in his consortium or their long term plans, based on the thin excuse that he's awaiting EFL approval, is as laughable as Nimer's ruse that he couldn't put any money into the club because former Director, greedy Southall, might somehow spirit it away.
That nod from the EFL is taking it's time and I suspect the huge embarrassment for the EFL over the scandal of newly approved Directors at Wigan putting the club into Administration for what seems like a way to collect a big bet in Asia (that Wigan are relegated), is likely to mean the EFL will want to avoid dropping another gooley any time soon. Coming on the back of the Bury debacle and the shenanigans over Bolton's ownership, things must be pretty fraught for the numpties at the EFL and their Owners & Directors Test is an open laughing stock. They haven't yet completed their Misconduct Investigation into the first ESI takeover, and they may need a position on that before they consider approving anyone else. There were suggestions yesterday that they want to see proof and source of funds in the order of £15-17m to support the running of Charlton for the next two years. I don't reckon the Mancunian estate agent has that sort of disposable income and I very much doubt any of his mates who form his supposed consortium could cobble it together either. Why would a man with no previous footballing interest take a massive financial gamble on a long-term investment in a club 200 miles from his home? It's too hard to believe. It's also strange that Elliott has told us that he won't action the Companies House change of ownership until he has EFL approval. Could it be he's hedging his bets or doesn't want to formally pick up the risk of the debt burden until he can grab a windfall and exit stage left?
As I have said previously, the fact that ESI (Nimer) could sell the club for £1 to, er, ESI (Elliott) and walk away, makes no sense either. Nimer must know that Farnell and Elliott have only a short-term interest and that there were serious buyers in the wings who might offer even a few million in order to acquire the club. Why would he walk away in the circumstances and effectively give control to his lawyer and a Mancunian estate agent? I suspect El-Kashashi, the Egyptian banker, may hold the answer to that question....
Whatever's happening, someone has had to pump a bit of money into the club over the last two months and whilst I don't think that's likely to have been nearly as much as two months running full costs at £400,000 per month (Players had agreed to defer wages and staff were furloughed), whoever has coughed up is out of pocket and will be looking for payback. Perhaps securing our Championship status will unlock the door? However, aside from the risks of the underlying contractual obligations to Duchatelet and the roadblock of the former-Directors loans, it may well be that serious investors are in no hurry to bail ESI (Elliott) out and are only too aware that Elliott and Farnell won't be able to sustain the operating losses for much longer. At this point in time, picking the club up from the Administrator looks the best option for a serious buyer. Administration would crystallise the clubs losses and null and void the ESI obligations to Duchaletet for any interested buyer. If it happened after the 'end of the season,' the twelve point deduction for next season may be a risk worth taking.
I am left wondering whether Chris Farnell and Paul Elliott might have bitten off more than they can chew and they might yet be forced to abandon ship, although they will face a shed-load of problems that won't go away if they do; Duchatelet will not give up on his £1.5m staying up bonus, or his £50m asset sale obligation and they might also have to find the cash to cover whatever has been put in to keep the shop open these last two months. Good job Chris Farnell is a brilliant sports lawyer with plenty of experience of struggling football club takeovers and Administration etc.
The good news, I am pleased to share, is that with only four or five games remaining, I can't see Wigan, Luton or Barnsley finishing above 47 or 48 points. That would mean we only realistically need one more win and with Reading and Wigan both to come at the Valley, we should be confident of securing our Championship place. Birmingham away is a free hit for us although I can't see us stopping the Leeds parade at Elland Road on the last day. Reading is potentially the easiest fixture we have left, so it would be good to get those points on Saturday.
Wigan are effectively on 38 points, 12 adrift of us and with only five games left it's surely too much for them. They have to play Barnsley (A), Hull (H) and come to the Valley and they will do well to pick up four points from those given the current disarray at their club. They may also need to get something from promotion-chasing Fulham on the last day.
Luton only have four games left and have to travel to Huddersfield and Hull. QPR and Blackburn may have little to play for but both should give the Hatters a good game at Kenilworth Road. Can't see Luton having enough - that 5-0 spanking by Reading will have damaged fragile confidence.
Barnsley are also struggling and they too only have four games left. Wigan and Forest at home offer them some hope but their two aways are at Leeds and Brentford on the last day. Bye-bye Barnsley.
We can pretty much forget the rest because the existing 3-5 point advantage they have over Wigan, Barnsley and Luton looks unassailable.
So, secure those three points and we can focus again on the future of the club. Any prospective buyer awaiting confirmation of our league status shouldn't have much longer to wait. Staying up could revive Huw Jenkins' interest and it may clarify the price for Barclay and Varney.
Meanwhile, Paul Elliott is continuing to keep a straight face and the pretence that he happened to be convinced over a chat with his friend and neighbour Chris Farnell that Charlton were somehow a good long-term investment. Given our situation and the current uncertainties of future revenues, that is impossible to believe. The fact that Elliott is refusing to commit any further to fans in terms of who's in his consortium or their long term plans, based on the thin excuse that he's awaiting EFL approval, is as laughable as Nimer's ruse that he couldn't put any money into the club because former Director, greedy Southall, might somehow spirit it away.
That nod from the EFL is taking it's time and I suspect the huge embarrassment for the EFL over the scandal of newly approved Directors at Wigan putting the club into Administration for what seems like a way to collect a big bet in Asia (that Wigan are relegated), is likely to mean the EFL will want to avoid dropping another gooley any time soon. Coming on the back of the Bury debacle and the shenanigans over Bolton's ownership, things must be pretty fraught for the numpties at the EFL and their Owners & Directors Test is an open laughing stock. They haven't yet completed their Misconduct Investigation into the first ESI takeover, and they may need a position on that before they consider approving anyone else. There were suggestions yesterday that they want to see proof and source of funds in the order of £15-17m to support the running of Charlton for the next two years. I don't reckon the Mancunian estate agent has that sort of disposable income and I very much doubt any of his mates who form his supposed consortium could cobble it together either. Why would a man with no previous footballing interest take a massive financial gamble on a long-term investment in a club 200 miles from his home? It's too hard to believe. It's also strange that Elliott has told us that he won't action the Companies House change of ownership until he has EFL approval. Could it be he's hedging his bets or doesn't want to formally pick up the risk of the debt burden until he can grab a windfall and exit stage left?
As I have said previously, the fact that ESI (Nimer) could sell the club for £1 to, er, ESI (Elliott) and walk away, makes no sense either. Nimer must know that Farnell and Elliott have only a short-term interest and that there were serious buyers in the wings who might offer even a few million in order to acquire the club. Why would he walk away in the circumstances and effectively give control to his lawyer and a Mancunian estate agent? I suspect El-Kashashi, the Egyptian banker, may hold the answer to that question....
Whatever's happening, someone has had to pump a bit of money into the club over the last two months and whilst I don't think that's likely to have been nearly as much as two months running full costs at £400,000 per month (Players had agreed to defer wages and staff were furloughed), whoever has coughed up is out of pocket and will be looking for payback. Perhaps securing our Championship status will unlock the door? However, aside from the risks of the underlying contractual obligations to Duchatelet and the roadblock of the former-Directors loans, it may well be that serious investors are in no hurry to bail ESI (Elliott) out and are only too aware that Elliott and Farnell won't be able to sustain the operating losses for much longer. At this point in time, picking the club up from the Administrator looks the best option for a serious buyer. Administration would crystallise the clubs losses and null and void the ESI obligations to Duchaletet for any interested buyer. If it happened after the 'end of the season,' the twelve point deduction for next season may be a risk worth taking.
I am left wondering whether Chris Farnell and Paul Elliott might have bitten off more than they can chew and they might yet be forced to abandon ship, although they will face a shed-load of problems that won't go away if they do; Duchatelet will not give up on his £1.5m staying up bonus, or his £50m asset sale obligation and they might also have to find the cash to cover whatever has been put in to keep the shop open these last two months. Good job Chris Farnell is a brilliant sports lawyer with plenty of experience of struggling football club takeovers and Administration etc.
Dear DDTG, interesting as ever, plenty of points worth considering. wrt Wigan-this Administration could have a galvanising effect on an already very successful team( with tonites result- one defeat in 11 games.) I think they could go all the way to the end unbeaten as they have relatively easy games. We must beat Birmingham and Reading, and not lose to Wigan...imagine the tension if we have to go to Leeds and get something...
ReplyDeleteWigan are now five points behind us with four games to play.
ReplyDeleteWith the points deduction, Wigan are now five points behind us with four games to play.
ReplyDelete