Wednesday, 29 April 2015

Ice the cake

Fine morning (congratulations to Steve Evans and Rotherham for staying up in their first season back in the Championship) and thoughts turn to Saturday's final game of this mixed season. My attention and that of Mexico Vic is on a decent sized wager we placed on the Addicks for a top 12 finish. Rationale was a way to pay for football next season for Me, the Missus and my step-brother's son who accompanies us. I also thought the bookies had their numbers wrong with us 7-2 for a top-half finish. 

In true Charlton style we have made a meal of it after a fine start and things couldn't be more finely balanced. The simple task is for us to finish above two of 
Birmingham, Forest, Cardiff and Sheffield Wednesday. With only a point in it, goal difference has loomed large and even that could be contentious.


Clearly, if we see promoted Bournemouth off on Saturday we are home and dry and in the money. However, if we lose there is an as likely scenario which could see us drop to 13th. Forest play Cardiff and form suggests that could finish in a draw putting both sides level on points with us. Forest would go above us and Cardiff could as well on goal difference if we lost by two or more, which isn't unrealistic given Bournemouth could strut their stuff on Saturday and our players continue not to be too bothered.

That would mean that a point for Birmingham at Bolton (Brum are on a decent run) or an unlikely Sheffield Wednesday win at Champions-elect Watford, would also scupper the bet.

So, what to do? The temptation is to lay off £200 at 11-8 on Bournemouth to win by two goals or more. That would take the cream off our cake but would ensure we got stake covered and didn't lose out. Otherwise, we hold our nerve and hope for a final Charlton Hurrah against a Bournemouth side playing for a chance of the Championship title. A draw would probably be enough but there is also the less likely scenario that Birmingham and Wednesday win and the Forest v Cardiff match doesn't finish in a draw, which would also see us finish bottom-half. 

We could also lay the bet off and win that and still finish top-half. What would you do?

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Lay it. We may draw on Saturday (though I doubt it) but the odds are that we will come 13th...
Pedro45

Tony said...

See how it looks at half time.
Then consider a double on teams near us (depending how they are going).
With so many ifs and buts, I won't be doing anything until 1pm.
Although they may be 4/7, I fancy us for a draw.

Matthew Blake said...

Squeaked that one!! At least you got a result today.